Do fossil fuels have a meaningful ”peak”?
Gelles, David. May 30, 2024 Right Kind of Tipping Point. The New York Times International Energy Agency. 23 November 2023 Oil and gas industry faces moment of truth – and opportunity to adapt – as clean energy transitions advance.
The oil and gas industry faces crucial decisions in the global transition to clean energy. Currently, oil and gas account for more than 50% of the global energy supply, but those companies have contributed very little to clean energy investment (1% globally). To achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, oil and gas industry emissions would need to be cut back by 60% by 2030. In such a world, oil and gas production would not disappear entirely in the interest of energy security and to provide fuel for certain sectors. Carbon capture, the primary strategy of many firms, is not a sustainable option as the electricity demand to operate these carbon capture/use/storage systems would be greater than possible.
Do fossil fuels have a meaningful ”peak”?
Fossil fuels do have a peak. Computational climate models exist to make predictions as to when we might run out of fossil fuels, and current models project that natural reserves will be empty by mid-century. According to IEA projections considering today’s global energy and climate policy settings, global demand for oil and gas will peak by 2030, but stronger action in delivering on pledges could keep the world on the right track. It is commonly understood that fossil fuels will inevitably decline. Despite that, oil companies production and profits have surged in the recent year and continue to which suggests that they are doing everything they can to be the last one standing.